Near Field Communications Handsets and Tags, NFC Pilots and Projects

Analyst: NFC mobile payments to exceed $30 billion by 2012

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Revenues from smart posters and mobile coupons are likely to drive NFC growth over the next few years, according to a new report from UK-based Juniper Research. The study, “NFC Mobile Payments & Marketing Opportunities: Forecasts & Analysis 2009 - 2014,” predicts NFC mobile payments will exceed $30 billion within three years.

Vendors are developing and launching a variety of interim solutions such as stickers and SD cards to get NFC to market faster on existing phones rather than new NFC enabled phones, the white paper notes.


“Many people focus on the use of NFC for payments but in fact it is poised to revolutionize the way many people shop too,” said the report’s author, Howard Wilcox. “The ability to tap smart posters and receive coupons and product information also presents new channels to market for merchants. While vendors see widespread availability of NFC phones in the future, the jury is out as to whether interim solutions will attract users or actually have a detrimental effect.”

Other findings included in the research report include:

  • The first NFC devices will be shipped commercially later in 2009 and the market will ramp up from 2011.

  • NFC/Felica payments are already established in Japan but by 2014 North America and Western Europe will be experiencing high growth.

  • By 2012, NFC global gross transaction value will exceed $30 billion.

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Market research firm Deloitte has released its predictions for the telecoms sector in 2012, which include a few caveats regarding NFC payments.

According to Deloitte, many people are still uncomfortable with the idea of paying with their phones due to concerns over security and the battery draining aspects of NFC – a perception service providers are going to have to overcome before widespread adoption can happen.

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CARTES in North America, a new annual card manufacturing, payment, identification and digital security expo and conference, has placed mobile payments at the center of its agenda of this year’s inaugural event.

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Visa Europe is anticipating a big year for contactless and NFC payments, with issuance projected to leap from 30 million in 2011 to 50 million in 2012.

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Ed McLaughlin, MasterCard’s head of Emerging Payments, has some good news for those waiting on NFC-enabled phones for contactless payments.

In an interview with Fast Company, McLaughlin said that he didn’t know of a handset maker who wasn’t working on integrating support for PayPass contactless payments.

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Swedish mobile operators Telia, Tele2, Telenor and 3 have formed a joint venture to offer a unified mobile wallet service. Operating under the name “4T,” the partners plan to deliver a mobile payments service that can be used on all handsets regardless of the cellular network.

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MarketsandMarkets has published a new report predicting that the NFC market will reach over $10 billion by 2016 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38% from 2011 to 2016.

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